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Título: ESSAYS ON HIERARCHICAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING
Instituição: PONTIFÃCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO - PUC-RIO
Autor(es): MAURICIO FRANCA LILA
Colaborador(es): FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO OLIVEIRA - Orientador
ERICK MEIRA DE OLIVEIRA - Coorientador
Data da catalogação: 04 11:10:20.000000/07/2023
Tipo: THESIS Idioma(s): ENGLISH - UNITED STATES
Referência [pt]: https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/DEI/serieConsulta.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=63090@1
Referência [en]: https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/DEI/serieConsulta.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=63090@2
Referência DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.63090

Resumo:
This study presents a set of methodological proposals aimed at improving forecast reconciliation in the context of Hierarchical Time Series. The main objective is to present original solutions to the theme, seeking to obtain more accurate forecasts than those obtained by independent models for the different levels of the hierarchy. The studies were conducted using real data, showing the potentiality of application of the methods developed in different scenarios, in which the time series are structured in a hierarchical fashion. This thesis is composed of a set of essays that explore forecast reconciliation from the perspective of a regression model, which gives foundations to optimal reconciliation. The first contribution addresses the problem of forecast reconciliation from the perspective of robust estimators. The proposal presents an original contribution applied to data from labor force surveys in Brazil, presenting a set of solutions that can drive efficient public policies. In this case, the reconciled forecasts obtained through robust estimators provided consistent gains in terms of accuracy when compared to methods that represent the state-of-the-art on forecast reconciliation in hierarchical time series. The second contribution deals with the problem of optimal reconciliation applied to energy consumption time series in Brazil. We present an alternative proposal, less sensitive to outlying forecasts at the reconciliation stage. The results obtained in this second study show considerable improvements in standard evaluation metrics with regard to the new forecasts. The third proposal seeks to offer robust covariance structures for forecasting errors, which expands the set of strategies presented in the literature. The main contribution is to incorporate robust covariance estimates into the MinT (Minimum Trace) reconciliation approach, which minimizes reconciliation errors, offering an estimator with minimum variance.
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